Economic Impact

The Anvil Creek development is a major investment commitment for the Hunter Valley Region, as well as the Lovedale and Greta areas. It proposes a new vineyard, international PGA-standard golf course, tourist resort with hotel and apartment accommodation, residential homes clustered around the golf course, sports facilities and an area set aside for future commercial and educational development.

To assess the economic impact of this major proposal, the highly respected Hunter Valley Research Foundation (HVRF) was asked to examine the likely economic value that Anvil Creek will bring to the Region.

The HVRF has developed a computer model that examines the impact of this proposal on the Hunter Region economy. The model determines the number of jobs that will be created and the amount of money that will be invested directly by this proposed development. It also counts how many other new jobs will be created elsewhere in the region as a result of this development and looks at the additional investments other suppliers and manufacturers will make flowing on from this proposed development. Additionally, the new jobs will generate more income for locals who in turn will make more purchases which will result in more employment and investment. The model also makes a conservative estimate of the taxation revenue benefits to the State and Federal Governments.

The analysis was based on the impacts of both the construction and the operation of the site during the period 2008-2025. Job numbers are based on counting them as equivalent to full time jobs (EFT) but there may also be many more part time jobs.

Impacts during construction: 2008-2025

The construction benefits start in the first year the development begins. That year, $68m will be invested directly in the site, and the equivalent of 222 full time jobs will be created on the site. Additional investment by others, including those who will benefit from the new jobs will be $66m, making a total of $134m worth of new investment for the Hunter Region. A total of 528 new jobs as a result of the construction activities will be created in that first year.

Over the period 2008-2025, a massive $622m is invested directly in the site, with an additional $610m of additional investment as a result of the project. That gives a total investment impact of $1.23 billion in the Hunter Region. During the construction period an average of 113 direct jobs are created every year, with an additional 156 jobs created elsewhere in the region as a result of this project. That means that the equivalent of 268 full time jobs are created every year for the time of the construction.

Impacts once operational: 2008-2025

Once operational, the tourist resort, vineyard and associated business and property services will create long term investment and job opportunities for residents of the Region. These benefits will start coming into effect in 2013. Looked at over the period 2008-2025, a total of $343m will be produced in new revenue into the Region. On average, the new jobs created as a result of the operation of the facilities will be an average of 103 new jobs each year, and taking into account other jobs as a result, a total of 146 new full time jobs each year. In 2018 and subsequent years, when Anvil Creek is fully operational, about 148 jobs will be directly created, with a further 61 induced by the additional production and consumption in the Region, a total of approximately 209 positions in each year.

Government tax revenue benefits

The Federal Government will be a significant beneficiary of this proposal. During construction, its taxation revenues will be increased by $103m, and once the facilities are operational, it increases its revenue take by $2.3m every year. The State Government gains an additional $18m of payroll tax during construction, and an additional $0.42m in revenue annually once the facilities are open.

From 2008-2025, that amounts to $134m of revenue for the Federal Government and $24m for the State Government.

Summary 

From 2008-2025, the HVRF has found that the Hunter economy will significantly benefit from the Anvil Creek development. For this 18 year period, direct construction expenditure and operating revenues valued at more than $800 million are estimated to generate additional production in the Hunter Region worth $475 million, and additional consumption worth $300 million, providing a total injection of more than $1.5 billion into the regional economy.

Direct employment is expected to average 215 full-time equivalent jobs in each year of the period, with a further 96 induced from additional production, and 103 from additional consumption, resulting in an annual average of 415 jobs in the Region.

Conservative estimates suggest that, over the period, approximately $134 million in taxation revenues will be generated for the Federal Government, and $24 million for the State Government, a total public sector benefit of $158 million.